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<Research>UBS Expects XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) 1Q24 Non-IFRS NP RMB4.9B, Hiking 51% YoY
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UBS expected in a report that the 1Q24 revenue of XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) would rise 25% YoY to RMB74.4 billion, while its non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to hike 51% to RMB4.9 billion.

By business segment, the broker predicted revenues for XIAOMI's smartphone, Internet of Things (IoT) and Internet businesses to grow 31%, 21% and 7% YoY respectively, with the IoT business likely to post a more significant profit than expected, offsetting cost pressures from smartphone components. The overall gross profit margin is forecasted to grow by 2.3 ppts YoY to 21.8%.

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The broker predicted XIAOMI's 1Q24 smartphone shipments to rise 31% YoY to 39.9 million units, with average product prices flat YoY, and gross margins down 1.9 ppts QoQ but up 3.3 ppts YoY. Revenue from XIAOMI's IoT and home lifestyle business is expected to elevate 21% YoY to over RMB20 billion, with gross margin from the business lifting 3.3 ppts YoY to 19% and 5.1 ppts QoQ.

UBS said it would keep a close eye on XIAOMI's pricing strategy during the 618 shopping festival in the mainland, and currently estimated that XIAOMI's smartphone shipments in 2Q24 will grow 18% YoY, but fall 3% QoQ to 38.9 million units, with its gross profit margin falling further to 13.6%. For the full year, shipments are expected to reach 163 million units, in line with XIAOMI's own target. XIAOMI's electric vehicle shipment forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remained respectively at 100,000 and 230,000 units.

UBS maintained a Buy rating on XIAOMI, with a target price of $20.

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